TD NEREUS 03-2018
Eduardo A. Haddad, Natália Cotarelli, Thiago C. Simonato, Vinicius A. Vale and Jaqueline C. Visentin
The aim of this paper is to describe in details the process of estimation of two interregional input-output systems for Greece, for the years 2010 and 2013. Further understanding of the changing structure of the Greek regional economies during the crisis, within an integrated interregional system, is one of the main goals of a broader project underway at the University of São Paulo Regional and Urban Economics Lad (NEREUS). With this paper, we make available not only the details of the methodological procedures adopted to generate the interregional systems, but also the database itself to be used by other researchers and practitioners.
TD NEREUS 02-2018
Eduardo A. Haddad, Natalia Cotarelli and Vinicius Vale
We develop a multiregional general equilibrium model for Greece to simulate the short run impacts of temporary deficit-financed rises in government spending. It has been recognized that the fiscal multiplier is a function of structural features of the economy and policy reaction parameters. Moreover, the debate on the magnitude of the multiplier along the business cycle has also been the subject of disputed debates. On these grounds, we look at the Greek case by calibrating the model using data for distinct states of the Greek economy during the development of the recent crisis. Whether this matters for local and nationwide multipliers depends on qualitative differences of the numerical structures of the model. Our results imply that structural coefficients have a strong effect on government spending impact multipliers. In the case of Greece, lack of information on the changing magnitudes of behavioral parameters over time adds another layer of uncertainty to this debate.
TD NEREUS 01-2018
Alexandre Ribeiro Scarcioffolo, Fernanda Finotti Cordeiro Perobelli and Ariaster Baumgratz Chimeli
We analyze potential efficiency gains in wind power projects by comparing counterfactual investment decisions in two different scenarios under a real options framework. The first scenario is a standard wind power investment, where the investor rents the land from local farms. In the second scenario, the wind power investor buys the land and commercializes both electricity and crop production, thus shortening the revenue risk through the diversification. Both scenarios have a waiting option, with the wholesale prices leading the installation decision. We model the electricity price as a mean reverting process with jumps and with different jumping probabilities for the different seasons of the year. Corn prices follow a mean reverting process. The waiting flexibility was modeled as a bundle of European options. The results indicate that the waiting option is exercised in 100% of our simulations in both scenarios, suggesting the still important role of government policies to stimulate wind power. More importantly, in more than 90% of the simulations, the second scenario brought value to the investment. Furthermore, net present values are more sensitive to reductions in capital costs than electricity prices. These results can form the basis for more effective policies for the wind power sector.
TD NEREUS 05-2017
Eduardo A. Haddad, Natalia Cotarelli, Thiago C. Simonato, Vinicius A. Vale and Jaqueline C. Visentin
The impact of the crisis in the Greek economy was not uniform among the regions, threatening socioeconomic cohesion. In this paper, we explore the concept of the income multiplier in a multi-regional setting, in the context of the Greek recession, showing empirical evidence for the increasing magnitude of the multiplier during the recession period. The main results reveal a complex system of interregional relations on some of whose structural characteristics the cyclical reaction paths of the regions depend. In this case, the use of fiscal instruments to stimulate local activity in the regions may bring about important implications for regional inequality in Greece.
TD NEREUS 04-2017
Marco Antonio Montoya, Luís Antônio Sleimann Bertussi e Ricardo Luís Lopes
Este artigo, com base na construção de uma matriz energética e de emissões compatíveis com as matrizes insumo-produto do Brasil, aponta que, no final do período de 2000 a 2014, a Cadeia Soja no agronegócio responde por 12,70% do PIB; 12,10% dos empregos; 9,80% do consumo de energia; e por 8,70% das emissões de CO2 decorrentes do consumo de energia. Identificaram-se dois fatos relevantes, por um lado, uma mudança estrutural pautada pela expansão do produto soja em grão em detrimento da industrialização e processamento da soja e, por outro, um expressivo uso de energia renovável que, em média, alcança 59,05% da cadeia e responde por 71,48% das emissões de CO2. Portanto, conclui-se que o consumo de energia na Cadeia Soja apresenta perspectivas ecológicas adequadas para conciliar o crescimento econômico com a preservação do meio ambiente.