TD NEREUS 16-2012
Henrique E. F. Vinhais and Joaquim J. M. Guilhoto
There has been a strong expansion of the federal universities’ system in Brazil in this century, consisted of increased public spending. This study aims to estimate the regional economic impact of this expansion, using an Interregional Input-Output model estimated for the 558 micro-regions of the Brazilian economy, at the level of 55 sectors, for the year of 2004. Treating the expansion of public spending in federal universities as a shock on the sector of Public Education, for the period 2004 to 2010, it is noticed that the federal universities’ budget increased from US$ 5.6 billion at the beginning of the century to US$ 7.9 billion in 2010. The global results show a total effect of US$ 6 billion in GDP (0.36% of 2004 GDP), US$ 10.5 billion in gross value of production, and an increase of 430,400 employed people. It appears that the smaller micro-regional economies present the highest relative impacts of the expansion of federal spending on universities, and those micro-regions, which have a capital of a federative unit, show the largest effects in absolute. Specifically, the microrregion of Diamantina - MG is the one with the largest percentage impact. Among the existing universities, the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) has the largest absolute impact. But among the new ones, it stands out the Federal University of ABC (UFABC) and the Federal University of Recôncavo da Bahia (UFRB).
TD NEREUS 15-2012
Renato S. Vieira and Eduardo A. Haddad
The objective of this paper was to elaborate an index to measure accessibility to jobs in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. The index followed a gravitational formulation as proposed by HANSEN (1959), weighting the opportunities according to the impedance to achieve them. We defined ‘opportunities’ as the number of jobs in each zone, and ‘impedance’ as an inverse exponential function of travel time between each pair of zones, which was calculated by an Engineering Company. Two indices were calculated, one for trips made by private vehicles and a second one for public transportation. We observed that: a) accessibility is usually higher as nearer the zone is to city center; b) the spatial distribution of accessibility is different between the two modes, being shaped as concentric rings for the case of private vehicle and being somehow attached to the railway network for the case of public transportation; c) there is a significant spatial correlation between income and accessibility.
TD NEREUS 14-2012
Andre F. T. Avelino, Geoffrey J. D. Hewings and Joaquim J. M. Guilhoto
This study proposes a social-environmental economic model, based on Regional Sequential Interindustry Model (SIM) integrated with geoprocessing data, in order to identify economic, pollution and public health impacts in state and municipality levels for energy planning analysis. Integrating I-O framework with electrical and dispersion models, dose-response functions and GIS data, this model aims to expand policy makers’ scope of analysis and provide an auxiliary tool to assess energy planning scenarios in Brazil both dynamically and spatially. Moreover, a case study for wind power plants in Brazil is performed to illustrate its usage.
TD NEREUS 13-2012
Ana Maria Bonomi Barufi
Este trabalho busca avançar na literatura da migração de estudantes de ensino superior, avaliando em que medida a oferta de vagas em instituições de ensino superior em um determinado município afetam o saldo líquido migratório deste grupo, ponderado pela população jovem do município. A evolução significativa recente na oferta de vagas em cursos superiores no Brasil pode indicar um novo instrumento de promoção de desenvolvimento regional. Assim, na medida em que vagas forem criadas em municípios mais desfavorecidos, cria-se um elemento de atração de jovens que se tornarão qualificados e poderão ou não permanecer no local. Considerando informações dos Censos Demográficos de 1991, 2000 e 2010 e dos Censos de Educação Superior de 1998 e de 2007, são construídos indicadores que buscam mensurar fatores de atração e de repulsão das famílias para determinados municípios. Sob esta ótica, a decisão da migração pode ser afetada pelo jovem (que migra sozinho, para estudar) ou por seus pais, que buscam melhores oportunidades de emprego e maior qualidade de vida. Como a análise se estende ao longo do tempo, são construídas Áreas Mínimas Comparáveis 2000-2010 para permiti-la, e a dependência espacial dos resíduos das regressões propostas é tratada por meio de modelagem utilizando o referencial teórico da econometria espacial. Como principais resultados, destaca-se o efeito positivo das vagas em cursos superiores, do tamanho da população e de medidas de qualidade de vida (expectativa de vida e taxa de mortalidade infantil) sobre o índice de migração líquida.
This paper advances in the literatures of college student migration evaluating in to what extent does the uprising in the offer of graduate courses in a certain municipality affect the migratory net balance (over the municipality young population). The recent significant evolution of the offer of places in graduate courses in Brazil may provide a new instrument of regional development. In this sense, if this process happens in less favored municipalities, there will be a new element of attraction of students that will be qualified and may stay there afterwards. Considering Demographic Census (1991, 2000 and 2010) and Graduate Courses Census (1998 and 2007), indicators of attraction and repulsion of families are constructed for Brazilian municipalities. Therefore, migration decision may be taken by the youngster (if he migrates alone) or by his family (in the pursuit of job opportunities and higher quality of life). As the analysis is done over time for municipalities, Minimum Comparable Areas (2000-2010) are built and the spatial dependence of the residuals in the regressions is taken into account by spatial econometrics models. The main results show that there is a positive impact of the offer of places in Graduate courses, of the population and of life quality measures (life expectancy and infant mortality rate) over the net migration index.
TD NEREUS 12-2012
Eduardo Barbosa, José Féres, Eduardo A. Haddad and Antonio Paez
The objective of this dissertation is to assess the impacts of climate change on the land use pattern in Brazil. To do so an economic model for optimal land use allocation was used. This model was derived from the profit maximization problem of a representative agent that has six options of land use: soybean, corn, sugar cane, other crops, pasture land and forests. From the estimated coefficients of the model simulations were carried using forecast data for temperature and precipitation in three periods of times 2010-39, 2040-69 and 2070-99. The results varied greatly in different regions but in general the area for pasture land increased while the areas for forests declined.