TD NEREUS 06-2012
Eduardo A. Haddad and Yasuhide Okuyama
O evento do bombardeio israelense no Líbano no verão de 2006 é um exemplo único de um desastre recente de origem humana. As ações de bombardeio foram concentradas no tempo e no espaço. Impactos econômicos de catástrofes causadas por desastres naturais ou provocados pelo homem são complexos e difíceis de analisar e avaliar, devido às características e singularidade de desastres. No entanto, algumas metodologias têm sido testadas e utilizadas para analisar seus impactos. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar os impactos econômicos da Guerra de Julho de 2006, utilizando um modelo EGC interregional para o Líbano. Consideramos a economia do país pouco antes da Guerra e estimamos qual teria sido o impacto sistêmico sobre as regiões libanesas ao enfrentarem uma redução dos estoques de capital físico na mesma magnitude dos danos estimados associados com os eventos de bombardeio. Destarte, pode-se derivar estimativas dos custos econômicos da guerra relacionados com a quebra estrutural na disponibilidade de infraestrutura econômica do país. Uma discussão complementar sobre a resiliência também é introduzida.
The event of the Israeli bombing in Lebanon in the summer of 2006 is a unique example of a recent man-made disaster. The bombing actions were concentrated in time – they lasted roughly one month so that the time frame is still considered short in an economic modeling sense; they were also spatially focused – they reached not only various targeted infrastructure points across the country, but also scattered locations in the south of the country. Economic impacts of disasters caused by natural or man-made hazards are complex and difficult to assess and evaluate, due to the features and uniqueness of disasters; however, some methodologies have been utilized to analyze their impacts. This paper aims to evaluate the short run economic effects of the July 2006 War using an interregional CGE model for Lebanon. We look at the economy of the country just before the War and estimate what would be the hypothetical economy-wide impact had the Lebanese regions faced a reduction of physical capital stocks in the same magnitude of the estimated damages associated with the bombing events. In doing that, we are able to derive the estimates of the economic costs of the war related to the structural break in the availability of economic infrastructure in the country. A discussion on resiliency is also introduced.
TD NEREUS 05-2012
Eduardo A. Haddad and Maria Carolina C. Marques
The objective of this technical note is to document the methodology used to generate an interregional input-output system (IIOS) for the Concession Areas of ANEEL. The system consists of 58 regions closely associated with the territories of the concession areas under contract with the Federal Government. It also includes up to 110 products and 15 sectors in each region, identifying the spatial and sectoral linkages in the Brazilian interregional system. This is the first study ever that attempts to model the economies of all the concession areas of electric-power distribution services in an integrated framework for Brazil.
TD NEREUS 04-2012
Gabriel Garber and Eduardo A. Haddad
This paper proposes a methodology to integrate econometric models with Johansen-type computable general equilibrium (CGE) models in instances when it is necessary to generate results consistent with a subset of variables that are endogenous to both models. Results for a subset of the CGE endogenous variables are generated from econometric models, and set as targets to be replicated by the CGE model. The methodology is further extended for robustness testing of the outcomes in cases which the targeted scenarios are random. The proposed methodology is illustrated by simulating the impacts of a monetary shock in Brazil.
TD NEREUS 03-2012
Alexandre A. Porsse, Marianne Z. Stampe, Marcelo S. Portugal and Eduardo S. de Almeida
In this paper we investigate if demographic change plays a role in the dynamic of regional economic growth in Brazil. The Brazilian economy has presented a very fast demographic transition because fertility and mortality rates of population have significantly decreased over the last decades. It is expected that demographic change affects the growth performance over the time since changes in the population structure imply in changes on the consumption and savings decisions, labor supply and productivity and in public investments as pension system expenditures tend to increase. Additionally, the pattern of demographic change and structure is not homogenous among Brazilian regions. This paper explores how the regional demographic structure has changed over the last decades among Brazilian regions and estimates convergence equations conditioned by demographic factors. The extent of the demographic effects on economic growth and its sensitiveness to different specifications for the econometric models are investigated.
TD NEREUS 02-2012
Eduardo A. Haddad
This paper introduces the ARZ model – a fully operational spatial computable general equilibrium model for Lebanon – and its use for the analysis of place-based policies in Lebanon, in an attempt to bring additional insights to some of the proposals presented in the National Physical Master Plan of the Lebanese Territory. The ARZ model uses a similar approach to Haddad and Hewings (2005) to incorporate recent theoretical developments in the new economic geography. We apply the model to look at the ex ante potential spatial implications of an increase in domestic and international integration of Lebanese regions through reductions in trade costs.