TD NEREUS 01-2012
Eduardo A. Haddad
The main goal of this paper is to present the recent developments in the construction of an interregional input-output matrix for Lebanon (IIOM-LIBAN), in the context of an ongoing project that aims to develop an interregional computable general equilibrium (ICGE) model for the country – “The ARZ Project”. The understanding of the functioning of the Lebanese regional economies within an integrated system is one of the main goals of the ARZ Project. By exploring different methods of comparative structure analysis, it is hoped that this initial exercise will benefit from the complementarity among them, resulting in a better appreciation of the full dimensions of differences and similarities that exist among the governorates in Lebanon.
TD NEREUS 15-2011
Ariaster B. Chimeli and Rodrigo R. Soares
Agents operating in illegal markets cannot resort to the justice system to guarantee property rights, to enforce contracts, or to seek protection from competitors’ improper behaviors. In these contexts, violence is used to enforce previous agreements and to fight for market share. This relationship plays a major role in the debate on the pernicious effects of the illegality of drug trade. This paper explores a singular episode of transition of a market from legal to illegal to provide a first piece of evidence on the causal effect of illegality on systemic violence. Brazil has historically been the main world producer of big leaf mahogany (a tropical wood). Starting in the 1990s, policies restricting extraction and trade of mahogany, culminating with prohibition, were implemented. First, we present evidence that large scale mahogany trade persisted after prohibition, through misclassification of mahogany exports as “other tropical timber species.” Second, we document relative increases in violence after prohibition in areas with: (i) higher share of mahogany exports before prohibition; (ii) higher suspected illegal mahogany activity after prohibition; and (iii) natural occurrence of mahogany. We believe this is one of the first documented experiences of increase in violence following the transition of a market from legal to illegal.
TD NEREUS 14-2011
Eduardo A. Haddad, Amir B. Ferreira Neto e Fernando S. Perobelli
Tramitam atualmente, no Congresso Nacional, algumas proposta para a formação de novos Estados no Brasil. Motivado pela recente aprovação da Câmara para o plebiscito sobre a criação de novos Estados no Pará, este trabalho tem por objetivo dar luz ao debate sobre a criação dos novos entes federativos, trazendo elementos objetivos sobre a caracterização socioeconômica dos novos espaços geopolíticos e seus respectivos papéis no novo contexto espacial do sistema interregional brasileiro. O artigo traz resultados inéditos para a discussão, buscando inicialmente, através de métodos tradicionais de análise regional, identificar padrões hierárquicos e de dependência espacial e produtiva neste novo contexto federativo. Tais resultados subsidiam a análise subseqüente dos impactos da nova configuração das transferências constitucionais, que identifica, por meio de simulações com um modelo interregional de insumo-produto especialmente calibrado para as 33 regiões consideradas no estudo, não apenas os potenciais ganhadores e perdedores dos processos de separatismo em discussão pela sociedade, mas também os mecanismos de interação espacial subjacentes a estes processos.
TD NEREUS 13-2011
Gustavo Barros and Joaquim J. M. Guilhoto
Este trabalho tem como objetivo descrever a configuração regional da estrutura produtiva da economia do Brasil em 1959, através da estimação de um sistema de Insumo-Produto Interestadual. A matriz estimada é a mais antiga desse tipo existente para o Brasil. Pode, portanto, ser uma ferramenta importante para o estudo da estrutura produtiva regional em um momento histórico em que a questão regional aparece como uma questão central no país. Neste trabalho, descrevemos os procedimentos de estimação, as fontes de dados, e apresentamos uma caracterização geral da estrutura produtiva regional da economia brasileira em 1959 usando alguns indicadores estruturais selecionados.
This paper aims at describing the regional configuration of 1959 Brazil‟s productive structure through the estimation of an Inter-State Input-Output system. The estimated matrix is the oldest of this kind for Brazil. It can, hence, be an important tool for the study of the regional productive structure at an historical moment in which the regional question appeared as a central national issue. In this paper we describe estimation procedures and sources of data, and present some general characterization of the regional structure of the economy in 1959 through selected structural indicators.
TD NEREUS 12-2011
Flávio V. Vieira and Eduardo A. Haddad
The main goal of this work is to investigate the role of trade weighted real exchange rate and foreign income on state export performance in Brazil from 1996 to 2009 using panel data analysis. We extended our model to incorporate commodity prices and state GDP. The results for the fixed effect models suggest that state exports are price (real exchange rate) and income (foreign) inelastic, and commodity prices and state GDP are relevant variables with positive estimated coefficients. The results for the two-step system GMM models, controlling for the number of instruments, indicate that the estimated coefficients for the lagged exports are positive and significant; the estimated coefficients for the trade weighted real exchange rate are all negative (expected sign) and statistically significant and price (exchange rate) inelastic; the estimated coefficients for the trade weighted foreign GDP are positive (expected sign) and significant and state exports are income inelastic; the estimated coefficients for state GDP are positive and significant in most estimated models showing that state size does matter for the state export performance in Brazil.