TD NEREUS 05-2023
Vinicius Goes Nogueira de Sá e Eduardo Amaral Haddad
A pesquisa utiliza técnicas de análise exploratória de dados espaciais para estudar a população em situação de rua e os centros de acolhida da cidade de São Paulo. Identificou-se que tal população se concentra nos distritos centrais da cidade. Já a rede assistencial, embora também mais presente nos distritos centrais, apresenta vagas de acolhimento não preenchidas na periferia na cidade, onde não há população significativa instalada na rua, o que indica que poderiam ser melhor utilizadas se realocadas para a região central. Contudo, mesmo as vagas dessa região não são plenamente utilizadas pela população local em situação de rua. Isso indica que, mesmo que oferecido em locais próximos à população-alvo, esta nem sempre procura pelo serviço de acolhimento. Nesse sentido, parece ser importante estudar maneiras de tornar os centros de acolhida mais atrativos à população em situação de rua.
TD NEREUS 04-2023
Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Amaral Haddad and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Droughts can lead to severe socioeconomic impacts on cities by affecting industrial production, food and energy price, and income. Given that the frequency and intensity of this climatic event are increasing because of climate change, assessing the vulnerability of economic activities to drought is essential to develop adaptation strategies. This study explores the economic effects of droughts on the São Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA), a region with a high concentration of people and economic activities and frequently hit by droughts. Our method comprises an integrated system of analysis that puts together climatic and economic databases. The integrated modeling system is divided into three steps: i) calculate a variable to represent drought conditions; ii) estimate the direct impact of droughts on sectoral activities through an econometric model; and iii) estimate the total impact on the economy through a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model calibrated with municipal data. The econometric model results showed that energy and water-intensive industries are more sensitive to droughts in the SPMA. The results from the simulations in the SCGE model showed that the impact on these sectors could spread to the entire economy, indirectly affecting activities such as land transport, construction, and personal services and decreasing the total production and disposable income of metropolitan municipalities.
TD NEREUS 03-2023
Luís Abel da Silva Filho, Carlos Roberto Azzoni e André Luis Squarize Chagas
Este artigo visa analisar os impactos dos recursos públicos dos Fundos Constitucionais de financiamentos sobre a economia dos municípios utilizando estimadores de econometria espacial. Avaliam-se os impactos dos financiamentos sobre o nível do PIB municipal em 2019 e sobre seu crescimento entre 2016 e 2019 nas regiões Norte, Nordeste e Centro-Oeste. Busca-se captar se há evidências de transbordamento espacial e temporal. Os resultados mostram que os Fundos têm pequeno impacto positivo sobre o nível e taxas de crescimento do PIB dos municípios.
TD NEREUS 02-2023
Carlos R. Azzoni, Rodrigo M. S. Moita, Mateus Rodrigues, Marina Merlo and Arthur Fisch
Food delivery apps have become popular in recent years, with additional strength during the COVID-19 pandemic. Do these apps benefit new and more suit to delivery restaurants at the cost of harming more traditional non-delivery ones? What is the net impact on the restaurant industry as a whole? This paper investigates these questions by analyzing the impact of the major meal delivery app in the Brazilian restaurant industry. We analyze the effects of the app’s introduction on the opening and closure of restaurants and employment in the restaurant business. The app positively affected opening new restaurants, but less so during the pandemic years. It also had a negative effect on the rate of closure of restaurants, implying a net positive impact on the industry as a whole. But, again, this effect is smaller during the COVID19 pandemic. Also, restaurants increased their employment when they joined the delivery platform. At the same time, restaurants that remained out of the platform decreased their employment during the same period. The net effect of the delivery app on employment in the restaurant industry is positive but not enough to offset the general negative trend of decreasing employment.
TD NEREUS 01-2023
Carlos R. Azzoni and Gustavo H. L. Castro
The paper deals with the effects of two recent crises on regional disparities in Brazil. We consider the impact of The Great Recession of 2008 and a more intense national crisis starting in 2014. We calculate the yearly average latitude and longitude weighted by the regional share of the national GDP between 2002 and 2019 for agriculture, manufacturing, commerce & services, government, and the aggregate value added. We analyze the evolution of the average latitude and longitude over the period to check for changes in their trends after the national shocks. We analyze per capita income dispersion and associate it with the national economic performance. We estimate convergence equations, introducing the effect of the two crises on the convergence of per capita income and average wage. We present the effect of the Covid-19 crisis on regional wage convergence. Finally, we analyze the convergence pattern of skill intensity across regions, highlighting the impacts caused by the two shocks.