TD NEREUS 02-2021
Raphael P. Fernandes, Eduardo A. Haddad e Lucas C. C. Dias
O objetivo desta Nota Técnica é estimar os impactos econômicos anuais da saída da Ford do Brasil, mais especificamente, do encerramento da produção da planta de Taubaté. Por meio de simulações utilizando o sistema inter-regional de insumo-produto para o Estado de São Paulo, aplicamos a técnica de extração hipotética para avaliar os efeitos setoriais e regionais do fechamento da fábrica. Os resultados sugerem que o encerramento das operações em Taubaté impactaria de maneira significativa a região onde a cidade se localiza, a Região Metropolitana do Vale do Paraíba e Litoral Norte. Estimamos uma queda do PIB da região de mais de R$ 1,69 bilhões anuais – o que representa aproximadamente 2,02% do total. A Região Metropolitana de São Paulo também seria severamente afetada em termos absolutos. Em termos agregados estima-se que o Estado de São Paulo perderá R$ 3,83 bilhões em um ano e o Brasil em torno de R$ 5,25 bilhões. Esses montantes representam 0,24% e 0,10% do PIB de São Paulo e do Brasil, respectivamente.
TD NEREUS 01-2021
Eduardo Amaral Haddad, Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli, Gustavo Castro, Inácio Fernandes de Araújo, Plinio Esteban Ramirez Alvarez and Raphael Pinto Fernandes
The objective of this document is to introduce the features of two inter-regional models developed for Paraguay. First, the Interregional Input-Output System, estimated for the year 2014 using the method known as Interregional Input-Output Adjustment System (IIOAS). The system considers 18 regions - the 17 departments in Paraguay and the capital city, Asuncíón - whose economies are disaggregated in 33 sectors. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first interregional system that takes into account explicitly the economies of the 18 Paraguayan regions. Second, the BM-PY model, an operational interregional computable general equilibrium model for Paraguay designed for policy analysis. The model is structurally calibrated for 2014; a rather complete data set is available for that year following the estimation of the interregional input-output database, facilitating the choice of the base year. Both models were developed by the Regional and Urban Economics Lab at the University of Sao Paulo - NEREUS, Brazil.
TD NEREUS 15-2020
Lucas Dias, Eduardo Haddad and Andrés Maggi
This paper assesses the efficiency of the Brazilian road network using data on road speeds and distances and a spatial general equilibrium model with costly trade. We find that Brazil would gain 0.31% of welfare if better organize its road network for intranational trade and that the most populated regions are relatively oversupplied of transport infrastructure compared with the remote and poor areas. We further find long lasting effects of the highways’ project designed to integrate Brasília with the rest of the country in the 1960s. Regions connected by the so-called Radial Highways are currently oversupplied of transport infrastructure.
TD NEREUS 14-2020
Eduardo A. Haddad, Inácio Araújo, Zineb Sijelmassi-Idrissi, Chanelle Ihezagire and Youness El-Bouazzaoui
In spite of the overall decrease in poverty in Morocco in the recent past, the pace of change did not affect regions equally. Poorer provinces faced slower reductions, increasing the relative gap in poverty indicators. In this paper, we explore the results of a multidimensional poverty indicator produced by the High Commission for Planning (HCP), the Moroccan official statistical agency, for the period 2004-2014. The Multidimensional Poverty Index (IPM) allows investigating the spatial aspects of different dimensions of poverty in the country. We find a clear spatial process underlying the distribution of the IPM. Moreover, the analysis undertaken at the province level suggests a persistent poverty hot spot in the northeast part of the country associated with poor infrastructure. Other poverty areas are more heavily associated with low quality of public services, particularly education and health. We provide a typology of geographically targeted sectoral policies, showing that there is no single recipe for all regions, since structural features matter.
TD NEREUS 13-2020
José Antonio León, Mario Ordaz, Eduardo A. Haddad y Inácio F. Araújo
La economía de un país está expuesta a perturbaciones inducidas por catástrofes causadas desastres naturales y por el hombre. Este trabajo presenta un esfuerzo para estimar de una manera sistemática y probabilista las consecuencias económicas naciones y regionales de la ocurrencia de terremotos. Además de abordar las pérdidas de producción, nuestro modelo calcula las métricas estándar de riesgo para múltiples componentes de la economía como empleo, PIB, PRB, inflación, volumen de exportación, etc. El enfoque propuesto se ilustra con un ejemplo desarrollado para Chile, cuyos resultados constituyen los primeros de su tipo. Los resultados revelan que la pérdida anual esperada (AAL, por sus siglas en inglés) de la producción bruta, PIB, y volumen de exportación en Chile son 277, 305 y 62 millones de dólares, mientras que la AAL de empleo es de 7,786 trabajadores. La Región Metropolitana de Santiago concentra ~43% de la AAL total de producción mientras que la Región de Valparaíso es la más riesgoso, con una AAL de producción regional de 0.21%. También presentamos las curvas de excedencia de pérdidas para diferentes componentes de la economía chilena tanto a nivel país como a nivel regional.