TD NEREUS 07-2020
Eduardo A. Haddad, Renato S. Vieira, Inácio F. Araújo, Silvio Ichihara, Fernando S. Perobelli and Karina Bugarin
Esta Nota Técnica apresenta a metodologia utilizada para avaliar os impactos econômicos dos primeiros 60 dias de implementação do Plano São Paulo, complementando a análise desenvolvida em Haddad et al. (2020) ao incluir os impactos sobre o mercado de trabalho. A avaliação está centrada nas informações sobre a evolução da atividade econômica no Estado de São Paulo, considerando diferenças regionais e setoriais. Para tanto, foi desenvolvido um indicador de atividade econômica (IAE) para todos os Departamentos Regionais de Saúde (DRS) do Estado, considerando diferenças de desempenho entre os setores de atividade.
TD NEREUS 06-2020
Eduardo A. Haddad, Renato S. Vieira, Inácio F. Araújo, Silvio Ichihara, Fernando S. Perobelli and Karina Bugarin
As COVID-19-related health indicators improve after restrictive measures were set in place in different parts of the world, governments are expected to provide guidance on how to ease interventions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. Whereas epidemiologists track the progress of the disease using daily indicators to better understand the pandemic, economic activity indicators are usually available at a lower frequency, and with considerable time lags. We propose and implement a timely trade-based regional economic activity indicator (EAI) that uses high-frequency traffic data to monitor daily sectoral economic activity in different sectors for the Brazilian State of São Paulo, a highly impacted region, overcoming the challenge of real-time assessment of the economy amid the COVID-19 outbreak. We then use this novel set of information combined with hospitalization rates to provide a first assessment of the São Paulo Plan, the COVID-19 exit strategy designed to gradually lifting interventions introduced to control the outbreak in the State. Available data show that, in its first 60 days, the phased strategy pursued in São Paulo has been effective in gradually reactivating economic activity while maintaining the adequate responsiveness of the healthcare system.
TD NEREUS 05-2020
Renato Schwambach Vieira and Eduardo Amaral Haddad
In this paper, we combine data from Uber Movement and from a representative household travel survey to constructs a weighted travel time index for the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. The index is calculated based on the average travel time of Uber trips taken between each pair of traffic zone and in each hour between January 1st, 2016 to December 31, 2018. The index is weighted based on the travel patterns reported in a representative household travel survey, thus the results reflect average congestion levels faced by individuals in the city. We show that the index has a strong correlation with traditional measures of congestion, however, it has a broader coverage of the road network. Finally, we run two analyses using the index: 1) we evaluate the trends of traffic congestion between 2016 and 2018, showing a significant decline in average time spent in traffic; 2) We analyze the effect of different events on traffic congestion in the city, including holidays, public transit strikes, road shutdowns, rain and Major sport events.
TD NEREUS 04-2020
Alejandro López-Feldman, Carlos Chávez, María Alejandra Vélez, Hernán Bejarano, Ariaster B. Chimeli, José Féres, Juan Robalino, Rodrigo Salcedo e César Viteri
COVID-19 is currently having major short run effects with possible serious long run implications for the environment and the management of natural resources in Latin America. In this paper, we discuss the possible effects of the pandemic on air pollution, deforestation and other relevant environmental dimensions across the region. With contributions from environmental economists from eight countries, we give an overview of the initial and expected environmental effects of this health crisis. We discuss potential effects on environmental regulations, possible policy interventions, and an agenda for future research for those interested in the design and evaluation of environmental policies relevant for the Latin American context.
TD NEREUS 03-2020
Daniel Furlan Amaral, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho, André Luis Squarize Chagas e Marcos Adami
In the 1990s and 2000s, soybean farming grew sharply, particularly in states located in Brazil’s mid-west region. To curb deforestation, the Federal Government implemented the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon Region (PPCDAm). At the same time, soy-buying companies and Civil Society Organizations implemented the Soy Moratorium. This paper focused on the major role of these initiatives in decreasing soybean farming in areas deforested after 2006 and on their importance in achieving this result. We considered rich database deforestation, soybean planted area, and other critical explained variables, and used spatial panel models to a balanced database of 287 municipalities over eight years. The results confirm that lower deforestation rates in the biome laid the foundation for reducing soybean farming in the Amazon biome. However, since 2008, when the Soy Moratorium was launched, there was a structural decline in this relationship, and new plantations began to represent a small percentage of newly deforested areas. The soybean production chain is modern and organized in regional hubs and that its growth stems from stable institutional conditions in municipalities and their surroundings, as well as from the availability of skilled labor and credit. Therefore, government programs to reduce deforestation made room for specific private actions focused on soybean farming that created a new environment for agricultural expansion in line with Brazilian law and environmental commitments. The Soy Moratorium reinforced this new order, and this production chain became a case study on public and private governance, given its importance in reducing soybean farming in deforested areas after the cut-off date.