TD NEREUS 03-2012
Alexandre A. Porsse, Marianne Z. Stampe, Marcelo S. Portugal and Eduardo S. de Almeida
In this paper we investigate if demographic change plays a role in the dynamic of regional economic growth in Brazil. The Brazilian economy has presented a very fast demographic transition because fertility and mortality rates of population have significantly decreased over the last decades. It is expected that demographic change affects the growth performance over the time since changes in the population structure imply in changes on the consumption and savings decisions, labor supply and productivity and in public investments as pension system expenditures tend to increase. Additionally, the pattern of demographic change and structure is not homogenous among Brazilian regions. This paper explores how the regional demographic structure has changed over the last decades among Brazilian regions and estimates convergence equations conditioned by demographic factors. The extent of the demographic effects on economic growth and its sensitiveness to different specifications for the econometric models are investigated.